favorite stock pick of Heebner

Ken Heebner was one of the most popular hedge fund managers, with tremendous returns until the 2008-2009 crash. He managed to beat the S&P 500 index by 63 percentage points in 2000. In 2001, he returned 47% vs. S&P 500’s 12% decline. He beat the market marginally in 2002 and 2004 marginally. In 2003, he returned 67% and beat the S&P 500 by nearly 38 percentage points. In 2005 Heebner again beat the market by 20 percentage points. Even though he underperformed in 2006 marginally, he killed the S&P 500 by returning 80% in 2007.

These were amazing returns. Unfortunately he lost a lot of credibility in 2008 and 2009 when he returned -48% and 10.5% respectively. His 2010 performance isn’t enough to recover his 2008 losses. His portfolio gained only 16% in 2010. We like Ken Heebner because he isn’t afraid of betting against the market when most fund managers are secret index huggers.

At the end of December, Ken Heebner was most bullish about the following stocks and he had at least $75 Million in each name:

FORD MTR CO DEL
-7.90%
698476
FREEPORT-MCMORAN
-7.60%
429622
TECK RESOURCES LTD
-12.30%
335984
SCHLUMBERGER LTD
7.80%
279692
WALTER INDS INC
8.10%
250566
BORGWARNER INC
6.70%
243491
TATA MTRS LTD
-6.50%
242789
PRICELINE COM INC
36.90%
220671
MAGNA INTL INC
-0.90%
219232
HALLIBURTON CO
23.90%
215468
SANDISK CORP
-1.10%
169115
AUTOLIV INC
2.00%
168142
NATIONAL OILWELL VARCO
14.20%
165435
COACH INC
8.40%
163718
POTASH CORP SASK INC
9.40%
137799
ALPHA NATURAL RES
-3.10%
121261
HOST HOTELS & RESORTS
-0.30%
109373
SIMON PPTY GROUP
16.00%
108014
CB RICHARD ELLIS GROUP IN
30.40%
98918
SL GREEN RLTY CORP
22.40%
97890
DIAMONDROCK HOSPITALITY
1.10%
93456
EQUITY RESIDENTIAL
15.70%
82601
CTRIP COM INTL LTD
20.40%
82114
GENERAL GROWTH PPTYS
8.60%
81115
HOME PROPERTIES INC
15.50%
81008
AMB PROPERTY CORP
15.70%
80861
JONES LANG LASALLE INC
22.00%
78885
AVALONBAY CMNTYS INC
13.30%
78222
TANGER FACTORY OUTLET
9.60%
77041
FEDEX CORP
3.00%
76743







Unfortunately Heebner’s top positions significantly underperformed the market since the end of December. The weighted average return of these 30 stocks is 4.9% vs. nearly 9% return for the S&P 500 index. If Heebner had an equally weighted portfolio of these 30 stocks, he would have marginally outperformed the market. His top three picks had negative returns this year and significantly hurt his overall returns. He had nearly $700 Million in Ford at the end of December. Leon Cooperman’s Omega Advisors and Bill Miller’s Legg Mason Capital Management had around $100-$150 in Ford as well. Automotive stocks didn’t perform well so far in 2011. Leon Cooperman’s big GM bet went south as well.

Ken Heebner’s best performing stock picks were Priceline and CBG. Priceline returned 36.9% this year. Chris Shumway, Chase Coleman, and Michael Karsch were other hedge fund managers with large investments in PCLN. Ken Heebner had the second largest position in PCLN. CBG is also very popular among prominent hedge fund managers. Richard Blum had more than $550 Million in CBG and John Paulson had more than $275 Million invested in CBG at the end of December. The stock gained 30.4%.

We like to imitate Ken Heebner’s positions when there are other hedge fund managers with high conviction purchases in the same stocks. These people may pick the wrong stocks some of the time, but we believe we can reduce these errors by verifying their picks before making any trades.

















































































































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